Obviously I can't win every single day. Otherwise I would be already a billionaire by now. Haha.
You will lose time to time and that is part of the game.
And it's very important to set the exit plan when that happens.
You have following options.
1. Stop loss
2. Hedge
3. Hold and average the cost down by adding more at the dip.
For R flags: I use number 1 option.
For B flags: I use either number 2 or 3.
So I guess you know my answer already then...
However sometimes you realize that you already lost and passed the threshold.
And the current price is closer to the bottom.
If you have a confidence that the stock will bounce at the bottom, number 3 option is also can be considered although you purchased per R flag.
HVBTF is good example for today:
I think it will be trading around 0.37-0.38 and know the bottom range starts at 0.33.
So my risk would be another 10%.
But if HVBTF would have a strong bounce at 0.33 and I added more to make the average cost down to 0.365, holding the current position is not much a risk especially for this type of high volatility stock.
This is only when I do not have Long position on stocks, though.
I have a considerable long position on HVBTF so whenever the flag failed, I do not hesitate to dump it with a loss.
Same as CGC:
I would do the same but I have another option for this one.
Hold and Hedge by Put option.
I am considering this because there's a big gap between next support in the main chart.
If the current level is not holding up, there's a chance it may go down deep to 40.13.
Thus Put could pay you off even with the profit overall potentially.
I just wanted to share my play book so that you could learn how to prepare in the worst case scenario.
10 Comments
You are so generous and genius! Appreciate your play book.
ReplyDeleteHave a great day!
My pleasure~
DeleteI thought CGC could follow the short flag but guess it's reversed as I was mentioning on Friday.
I guess I would set the trail instead of buying Put...if the current Green maintains. ^^ :)
For PUT options, how far out expiration would you consider, and just a little OTM?
ReplyDeleteHaha.. I just replied above.
DeleteI am not considering Put anymore.
But I was considering 44 strike expires this Friday.
That is only because I do not hold stock longer...
Also keep in mind that I have Long position on CGC anyway besides this swing acct. ^^
Thank you, I have Long positions on CGC, ACB, and MJ , so I was considering PUT options. Now it's changed, so will consider trailing.
DeleteHave a great day!!
엘님, 정말 감사드려요^^
ReplyDelete성공과 실패의 사례들과 그에 대한 대비책까지, 상세한 가르침이 감동이네요!
하루하루 걸음마를 배우는 단계라 이해수준도 그 정도밖에 안되지만,
시간이 흐른 뒤 어느 날, 오늘의 이 배움이 어떤 모습으로 나타나게 될 지 정말 기대합니다.
예상된 손해는 아무런 문제가 없죠...예상한 상황이니까요...
Delete하지만 예상치 못한 손해들이 생길때도 가끔 있는데, 대부분의 사람들이 그럴때 패닉이되죠.
그래서 더 악수를 종종 두게 되는거구요.^^
예상치 못한 손해를 당해도, 새로운 지점으로 reset하고 냉정하게 Re-evaluation해야 합니다..
지금으로부터 더 최악의 경우와 최선의 경우를 레인지화 해서, 그 레인지 내에서 Strategy를 새로 짜는거죠.
항상 이렇게 습관화 되어있어야, 패닉이 되지 않고, 악수를 두지 않게 됩니다. 그리고 결정이 나면, 편하게 지켜보고 무브온 하시는거구요.^^
결정하고, '편하게 지켜보고 무브온'..ㅎㅎ,, 저도 그럴 때가 오겠지요^^
Delete주식을 시작한 뒤 하루하루..두근두근~` 휴..심장병 걸리겠어요..ㅎㅎㅎ
한 종목에만 집중하는데도 이러니,, 그래도 매일이 즐겁네요^^
아이러니하게도...한국 분들은 대부분 성격이 급하죠. 저도 그런 것 같아요.^^ 성격이 급한 분들이 롱으로 쥐고가야 이익을 낸다고 다들 그러니...롱으로 쥐고서 매일 매일 주식시장 들여다보며, 스트레스를 받으시죠.
Delete롱은 그렇게 쥐는게 아니거든요.^^
한국분들의 성향에 특히 더 잘 맞는게 사실 제 시스템이에요..그런면에서...ㅎㅎ^^
저도 언젠간 "결정하고 편하게 무브온" 이럴때가 올수 있겠죠?
ReplyDelete냉정하게 re- evaluation... 이것도 정말 힘든 일인거 같아요.
항상 감정이 들어가니... 자꾸 미련을 가지고... ㅎㅎ
엘님과 함께 하다 보면 언젠간 이것도 달라져있겠지요.
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