Market Overview

  • Premarket Down: Bearish
  • BTC Down: Bearish
  • Gold Up
  • WTI Down
  • Brent Down: Shock
    • Russia reject to cut: Makes sense as U.S. Shale has been the most beneficiary since 2016 cut by OPEC+
    • Real Shock: Saudi Arabia opened the price war on Saturday as they would increase their production and offer discount price by 20% starting April.
    • Current future price is priced in all of above factor: Fair price should be around $40 until April though.
    • Future price could dip further if other countries follow Saudi Arabia: Analysts see $20 is coming.
  • Bonds(yield) Down
  • Vix Up
  • Black Bloody Monday: Virus spreads globally and more cases in U.S.. Oil Shock. Bitcoin slump. And yet, Market's not down by 10% but only down below 5%.
  • Italy locks down
  • Bond yields collapse
  • Lebanon defaults
  • Reserve CASH or CASH equivalents at least 50% of your entire portfolio until the market hit or near bottom. I expect the market plunge by 30%(least) from the top and that would another 14% from 24,500(DJI) to around 20,000.

Flags from Friday




Short Flag: When short fails, it usually leads to a big bounce followed by a Rally. I consider this as an opportunity for a bonus day trade.