Market


Originally I was expecting to drop by 30% from 52wk high before the Bear Market started.
It's in that range right now.
I now think it can go down to 50% and more in the worst case scenario, otherwise 40%.

30%: If everything goes back to normal in a week or two.
40%: A few mid-cap companies are out of business
50% and more: Country like Italy defaults creating another Financial Crisis.

U.S. and S. Korea had reported 1st COVID-19 case on the same day on Jan. 19, 2020.
It's been a couple months since and S. Korea's new cases per day and Active cases already start decreasing.
U.S. now realized how serious this is so they are ramping up the testing capability and as a result, new cases jump by 5000 in a day.
Hopefully U.S. up their game and control like S. Korea so the active cases top it in a week or two.

Opportunity for Long Term Investment and this could be one of biggest in your life time.

 Market Down 30%(Now): Start buying using 30% of your cash
Market Down 40%: Add more using remain half of your cash
Market Down 50%: All in

List: Best Expected Return after Crisis



My Personal Shopping List

GBTC: 
I am still very confident about Bitcoin's future. At least until 2022-2023.
DAL: 
If there's any one airline survive from this pandemic, this is it.
UBER: 
People will still need public transportation when they are drunk.
AMAT: 
Undervalued compare to AMD and NVDA
CGC: 
If I have to pick one in the MJ sector now, it's got to be CGC. Sorry CRON but I still love you.
BAC: 
I am a customer of BAC for a LONG TIME.
BRK.B: 
One of top 3 CASH holding right now.
MSFT: 
Biggest CASH pile right now.
BYND: 
It's below $60 now. I think it's good price
TSLA(below 320): 
It could be attractive in that level.
TDOC: 
After this virus crisis....I like this even more. It's up 40% last 5 days.
AMT: 
Probably most reliable steady growth company for next 10 years.
ABT: 
Just shipped 150,000 COVID-19 Testing kit and at maximum production now.

Stock to avoid

ZM(Zoom)
According to Fortunebusinessinsights.com, the market size was $3.02 billion and projected to reach $6.37 billion by 2026.
THE Entire Market size is projected to be only $6.37 billion by 2026.

ZM;s current market cap = $36 billion on $622 million revenue with no profit.

by comparison...
TWTR $18 billion market cap on $3.46 billion revenue with $1.47 billion earnings
UBER $36 billion market cap on $14.15 billion revenue with no profit
CGC $4 billion market cap on $384 million revenue with no profit
AMAT $34 billion market cap on $14.61 billion revenue with $2.71 billion earnings

ZM's current market cap is smiliar as UBER and AMAT.
AMAT or UBER's revenue is 22 times bigger than ZM.

I have no clue why media and analysts are pumping this company to the moon.
Even if this stock hit $100 billion market cap in near future, I WILL NEVER REGRET that I did not invest in this stock.

BA

This one is really tough at the moment.

I still believe that U.S. can't give up on this despite all of bad management including Stock buying....
In fact, it's not in that bad shape YET.
But without government bailout, it could go worse and worst.

Current price is very attractive based on Risk vs Reward perspective.
I don't see $400 anymore for a long time and maybe even $300 range.
But high $200's most likely as long as the pandemic situation is resolved sooner before it's too late.

If you are a holder, you should be watching very carefully.
If there no sign of bailout in a week, I would reduce the position.