Market Overview

  • Premarket Up
  • BTC Down
  • Gold Up
  • WTI Down
  • Brent Down
  • Bonds Up
  • Vix Down
  • New Home Sales at 10 AM
  • Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM
  • Disney CEO step down

Special Opinion about current market

  • There were total 3 times that DJI had B2 flag for 4 or more days in a row since Dec. 2018.
    • 12/19/2018 - 12/24/2018 : 4 days B2 with Total 8% drop.
    • 3/4/2019 - 3/8/2019 : 5 days B2 with 2% drop
    • 7/30/2019 - 8/5/2019 : 5 days B2 with 6% drop
    • 2/20/2020 - present : 4 days B2 with 7.7% drop
  • Based on above stat, most likely the market will rebound today or tomorrow.
  • Even if rebound occurs, I doubt that it could be a permanent recovery.
    • Dow at 26,611 : Official Correction begins or completes. It's 400 more points down from current level.
    • The system's 600 bottom at 25500 range so recession actually could happen when the dow dip down to that range.
  • About Coronavirus
    • It's true that flu is more dangerous than Coronavirus according to Johns Hopkins recent research. CLICK HERE for actual article.
    • Most likely this will be over in the summer.
    • New vaccine might be available by the next winter season.
  • Macro Economy
    • This is major concern that I have and this is why I worry about recession.
    • Unlike SARS which was started also from China back then, China is not the same China now. The country is G2 and almost every Global Fortune 1000 companies are manufacturing from China. Apple already admitted, Semi Conduct business already got impacted and so on.
    • We could find out on next earning.

    Flags from Tuesday




    Short Flag: When short fails, it usually leads to a big bounce followed by a Rally. I consider this as an opportunity for a bonus day trade.